Smartphone shipments will fall in 2019 for the third year in a row, according to the latest study from IDC. driven by highly saturated markets in developed countries and slower churn in some developing countries. Shipments will decline 1.9 percent from the year before to 1.375 billion this year and reach 1.520 billion in 2023. In general, momentum is this year reduced in developing markets, on a slower transition from feature phones to smartphones, according Telecompaper. Pricing remains a crucial point in all markets, creating new opportunities for mid-range price points. IDC noted however that the most significant and most uncertain market factor is how the US-China trade dispute will play out over the year.
Global shipments will in the first half slide 5.5 percent but they will then recover in the second half and grow 1.4 percent, driven by the push for 5G, a larger selection of lower-priced premium handsets and uplift from markets such as India. The growth figure for H2 includes a 5 percent decline in China. China should be close to flat growth in the first half of 2020 and return to positive territory in the second half, pushed by heavy 5G marketing and device subsidies.
Regarding 5G smartphones, IDC sees a slow start this year, with the type making up only 0.5 percent of total shipments. However, there will be an acceleration after that, with 5G smartphones expected to account for 26.3 percent of all shipments worldwide in 2023.
Android’s market share will increase this year to 86.7 percent and in 2023 to 87.1 percent, from 85.1 percent the year before, mostly on the back of new model launches. Android average selling prices (ASPs) should grow by 5.8 percent to USD 269 from 254 in 2018. Shipment volumes will reach 1.191 billion units this year and 1.324 billion in 2023.
Regarding iOS, iPhone shipments are expected to slide over 12 percent this year to 183.5 million units. Apple is still working on its 5G strategy but this will not much impact its market share. Officially refurbished iPhones will generate more revenue stream as well, and maintain or expand the company’s iOS installed base. The market share for iOS will reach 13.3 percent this year and 12.9 percent in 2023
